Theory and Design of MTG – Week 5: Statistics


In our second lecture on the topic, we will take a more quantitative look at deckbuilding. We will discuss how probability can help us understand expected outcomes for deck construction, including a discussion of the “mana curve”, and when to mulligan. We will also see how Monte Carlo simulations can approach playtesting differently.

We also talk about how the Zendikar draft for the class went and how to get free pizza.

And because we can’t thank him enough, thanks again to Dave for the donation of cards.

Slides are at:

and far more information at

Tom can be reached at tmedina1 at

Kevin can be reached at kkleung at